Introduction: Tinubu’s Re-election Prospects: An Ironclad Forecast
Jide Ojo a political analyst boldly asserts on August 22, 2025, that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s re-election in 2027 is nearly inevitable, barring death or serious health complications
In an exclusive interview, Ojo portrayed Tinubu as an astute strategist whose grip on political structures and opposition navigation ensures his continued hold on power.
Ojo said, “The only thing that can stop Bola Ahmed Tinubu from being re-elected in 2027 is death or serious health issues.
Politically, he is expected to win because of his strategic approach, control over party structures, and ability to respond effectively to opposition threats.”
The analyst warns political monopoly risks Nigeria’s democratic vibrancy and fairness in future elections.
How Tinubu Engineered Victory in 2023
Ojo detailed Tinubu’s political calculus in the controversial decision to run a Muslim-Muslim ticket in 2023, a move that polarized the nation and sparked fierce debate.
Tinubu knew Buhari’s tenure disappointed many Nigerians but saw Northern Muslim ticket securing crucial Northern votes.
“Tinubu is a smart politician who uses surveys and opinion polls to guide his decisions,” Ojo explained.
“He understands the importance of appealing to different groups emotionally and balances his ticket to maximise votes.”
Ojo’s analysis implies that Tinubu’s decisions are carefully engineered political maneuvers, driven by cold calculations rather than ideological vision or national unity.
Mastering Carrot-and-Stick Politics
A hallmark of Tinubu’s approach, according to Ojo, is the blend of incentives and coercion used to control alliances.
Rather than alienate rivals, Tinubu reportedly co-opts potential threats with power-sharing deals or government appointments.
Ojo elaborated, “The man has been a smart politician all his life.
He knows politics more than he knows accounting.
And he wields a carrot and a stick.
Now he waits to see what the opposition brings to the table before making final decisions on his running mate or strategic moves.”
This admission exposes a highly pragmatic, if ruthless, leadership style that prioritizes political survival over inclusive governance or reform.
The Unseen Role of Secret Opinion Polls
One of the more unsettling revelations was Tinubu’s reliance on secret opinion polling to inform his strategies.
Ojo claimed that while Tinubu’s surveys are never publicized, they play a critical role in shaping campaign decisions.
“He hires the best agencies discreetly and opens up ideas of what people are thinking. He flies charts and gauges reactions,” Ojo said.
This strategy underscores a sophisticated manipulation of public sentiment, arguably sidelining democratic transparency and genuine public discourse.
Breaking Down the Muslim-Muslim Ticket Rationale
Ojo outlined the cold logic behind the Muslim-Muslim ticket choice.
Tinubu sought to avoid Buhari’s poor legacy narrative while securing bulk of Northern Muslim votes.
He knew without picking Northern Muslim, most Muslim North votes would shift to Peter Obi’s appeal.
According to Ojo, Tinubu’s calculation was mathematical.
Weigh the gains against potential losses; accept partial victories, needing only 25% in key states to secure overall success.
Controversy and Criticism Remain Unaddressed
Despite this political wizardry, Tinubu’s Muslim-Muslim ticket inflamed religious and ethnic tensions nationwide.
Many Nigerians saw it as a cynical exclusion of the nation’s Christian population from the presidency, sparking protests and calls for electoral reform.
Critics argue that Tinubu’s strategic moves undermine Nigeria’s fragile religious balance, inviting divisiveness rather than fostering unity.
Instead of addressing deep-rooted issues, this approach allegedly prioritizes votes over values, entrenching sectarianism in Nigerian politics.
The Political Future: No Real Opposition?
Ojo’s commentary paints a bleak picture of Nigeria’s electoral landscape, where Tinubu’s strategy and party control stifle meaningful opposition.
The repeated reliance on financial influence, political patronage, and manipulation diminishes hope for a level playing field.
Ojo said the man knows how to respond, as opposition lacks resources or strategy to challenge.
Tinubu’s Legacy: Political Mastery or Democratic Setback?
In sum, Jide Ojo’s analysis presents Tinubu as a master of political chess, outmaneuvering opponents with calculated precision.
Nonetheless, this mastery may come at Nigeria’s democratic expense, fueling controversy over inclusiveness, fairness, and long-term stability.
Ojo’s words spotlight a leader who is unlikely to be unseated without extraordinary circumstances.
Nigerian voters face entrenched political hegemon, raising urgent questions about democracy and governance future.
Political Balance: Strategy Over Principle
Jide Ojo dismissed idealistic views on regional and religious balance in Tinubu’s political decisions.
He suggested that while such considerations are often highlighted in political discourse, they should not be seen as ends in themselves.
Ojo emphasized that regional and religious balance are indeed important elements in the political landscape.
He argued regional and religious balance serve mainly as strategic tools to win elections, not equity.
According to Ojo, Tinubu’s core focus is on “who brings value to the ticket and can help secure votes.”
He said Tinubu appoints those who add value to his governance while maintaining a balance that “appeals to groups without being destructive.”
Such a pragmatic and coldly calculated approach causes unease among Nigerians longing for genuine national unity.
Strategic Appointments to Quiet Critics
Ojo highlighted Tinubu’s calculated appointment of Nentawe Yilwatda, young Christian from North Central.
Yilwatda replaced the former Kano State Governor Abdullahi Ganduje, who resigned amid rising electoral backlash.
This appointment, Ojo suggested, was a strategic move to counter criticism of the Muslim-Muslim ticket and boost APC’s electoral prospects in a critical geopolitical zone.
Ojo said the appointment was a strategic move to counter Muslim-Muslim ticket criticism, boosting APC’s prospects.
Yilwatda symbolizes APC’s effort to appease Christian voters while maintaining tight party control, says Ojo.
However, the sincerity of such moves remains questioned by many Nigerians.
Planned Governance: The Two-Phase Strategy
According to Ojo, Tinubu’s governance plan is structured deliberately to maximize electoral gains.
The first two years target economic, agricultural and health reform.
The latter two years focus on infrastructure projects, bailouts, and conditional cash transfers intended to win grassroots support ahead of elections.
Leadership prioritized votes over sustainable development, favoring popular policies instead of deep systemic changes.
Monitoring Opposition: An Indicator of Confidence
Ojo claimed that Tinubu meticulously monitors opposition parties like the PDP and ADC, noting their internal weaknesses and confusion as key factors boosting the APC’s confidence.
“The lack of defections to the opposition and confusion within opposition parties has boosted Tinubu’s confidence,” Ojo explained.
“He uses this information to position the APC and decide whether to adjust his alliances.”
The analyst cited Ganduje’s removal, opinion polls, and Tinubu’s crucial role in APC and Buhari’s rise.
The analyst cited Ganduje removal, opinion polls, and Tinubu’s role in forming APC and Buhari’s 2015 installation.
These events reflect a political operator who plays a long strategic game while maintaining tight control over party structures.
Economic Reality: Modest Progress Amid Hardship
Ojo conceded that Nigerians have endured hardship due to rising living costs under Tinubu’s administration.
However, he pointed to reported progress in electricity supply, free dialysis services in federal hospitals, and reforms in health and agriculture.
He argued, “People have adjusted to the changes, and the government is seen as making progress despite challenges.”
Still, this measured praise contrasts sharply with the economic struggles felt across Nigerian households and the growing frustration with government performance.
Northern Ethnic Nationality Forum’s Crucial Warning
Warning against the political and social dangers, the NENF insisted that inclusivity is essential for Nigeria’s stability and unity.
Their statement, signed by leader Dominic Alancha, called for a balanced presidential ticket to strengthen national cohesion and electoral viability.
The group recalled how Tinubu’s choice of Kashim Shettima as running mate in 2023 sparked nationwide criticism and aggravated religious tensions.
Although the pairing eventually won the election, the NENF stressed that it alienated millions of northern Christians, escalating fault lines rather than healing them.
The Need for National Cohesion
“The Northern Ethnic Nationality Forum urges President Tinubu and APC to drop 2027 Muslim-Muslim ticket plans..
“Our demand is rooted in the urgent need for national cohesion, electoral viability, and justice for Nigeria’s diverse religious and ethnic communities.”
The forum pointed out that over 80 percent of northern Christians rejected the APC in 2023.
This rejection cost the party key states such as Plateau, Benue, Nasarawa, and the Federal Capital Territory.
The group also noted that several Christian politicians defected in protest, further weakening the APC’s hold.
Electoral Risks: Opposition Alliances Threaten APC
The NENF warned that a possible alliance between opposition figures Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar could dismantle APC’s support base if Tinubu ignores their warnings.
While acknowledging Kashim Shettima’s competence, the forum emphasized that his presence on the ticket cannot remedy the grievances triggered by the 2023 pairing.
The repetition of similar strategies could deepen the religious divide and cost the APC dearly in the next election.
A Divided Nation Awaits a Divisive Election
This developing controversy reveals the fault lines threatening Nigeria’s democracy.
While Tinubu and his party deploy pragmatic political engineering to maintain power, societal fractures along religious and regional lines persist or worsen.
The question remains whether political expediency will continue to trump the urgent need for genuine inclusivity and nation-building.
As Nigeria heads toward the 2027 general election, the choice of presidential ticket could be a pivotal factor either for unity or further division.
